World Oil Production Forecast - Update November 2009

World Oil Production Forecast - Update November 2009

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Video - Contraction and Convergence animation from "The Age of Stupid"

This animation from The Age of Stupid is a quick and concise explanation of the concept of Contraction and Convergence, a framework for the equitable powerdown from our disastrous oil dependence.



Here is the blurb from the Global Commons Institute website;
"Contraction and Convergence, C&C, is a scheme to provide a framework for a smooth transition to a low level of CO2 emissions from human activity. It can either follow or replace the Kyoto protocol. The first step in C&C, 'Contraction', is based on agreeing a safe target concentration level and the determination of global annual emissions levels into the which should take the atmosphere to that target. We assume that what is 'safe' would be determined by an international agreement, probably by the UNFCCC acting under guidance from the IPCC. A profile of plausible annual emissions levels can be set by GCI's CCOptions model. We project forward to 2200.
Having defined a global budget, the second step, 'convergence' defines allocations to each country. CCOptions assumes that each country is assigned annual allowances which vary, per capita, linearly, starting from actuals in 2000 and converging to a common level of per-capita emissions in a target year. This target year need not be the same as the contraction target year and is a likely topic for political negotiation.
A cap year can be set so that population growth after that year does not accrue additional emissions rights.
The C&C package is expected to be completed with an emissions-trading mechanism and with a governance framework including penalties for non-compliance."

My permaculture education begins!

As most of my regular readers know, my wife and I are planning on setting up an off grid permaculture lifestyle with a attached community education project when we get to the states in the spring. This, of course, necessitates a thorough understanding of permaculture. I hope to take a permaculture design course, probably in Asheville, while my wife would like it if we could avoid that and rely on our own study. This necessitates owning the right books. So....

Since I got back to England I've been trolling the used book shops for books on Permaculture. I finally found one at my friend Brian's bookshop yesterday and what a find! "Permaculture: A Practical Guide for a Sustainable Future" by Bill Mollison, a tome, large hardbound 579 pages.

So my plan is to spend an hour every morning studying and keeping notes, particularly as they apply to our specific project. I will endeavour to post occasional updates on what I'm learning and the development of the plan.

Video - Ted Talks - Rob Hopkins - Transition to a world without oil

"Rob Hopkins reminds us that the oil our world depends on is steadily running out. He proposes a unique solution to this problem -- the Transition response, where we prepare ourselves for life without oil and sacrifice our luxuries to build systems and communities that are completely independent of fossil fuels."

Videos - Tim Jackson - Prosperity without growth

I remember a debate I had as a young man with a friend of mine who was making his living in the stock market. He advised me to invest in banks and to learn the ways of the trader. I admonished him for being involved in an industry that rewarded companies for firing people, for putting people out of work when they had families to feed, all in the interest of short term profits. I felt, as I still feel, that an economy that grows by reducing jobs was nonsensical, unethical and unsustainable. I wanted no part of it. For all the years in between, endless growth as an economic model has been gospel and any attempt to discuss the obvious fact that we live on a limited world of resources upon which our economy and our very survival is completely dependent was met with looks of disbelief. One never heard any mainstream discussion of this problem, until now.

Tim Jackson, Professor of Sustainable Development at University of Surrey and Economics Commissioner to the UK Sustainable Development Commission, (click here for bio) is advising the Labour Government, at their request, that we need to redefine what we call prosperity and find a new path there, one that doesn't involve consumerist materialistic growth! You can download his report here, the most downloaded report in the history of the Commission.

Meanwhile the fox still owns the henhouse in the US, the banksters remain firmly in control, steering the debate away from any serious discussion that the entire foundation of the economy is built on sand. Like Zombies in a Romero film, arms raised intoning "must protect the rich, must protect the rich...."

"Is our economy fit for purpose in a low carbon world? Can economic growth deliver us from the threat of catastrophic climate change, or is it the engine thats driving us relentlessly towards it?

Speaking today at a high-level debate in central London to mark the publication of his controversial new book Prosperity without Growth, Tim Jackson argues that building a new economic model fit for a low carbon world is the most urgent task of our times.

The current model isnt working, says Prof Jackson, a top sustainability adviser to the UKs four governments. Instead of delivering widespread prosperity, our economies are undermining wellbeing in the richest nations and failing those in the poorest. The prevailing system has already led us to the brink of economic collapse and if left unchecked it threatens a climate catastrophe.

Prosperity without Growth substantially updates Jacksons groundbreaking report for the Sustainable Development Commission. Launched earlier this year to great acclaim, the report rapidly became the most downloaded document in the Commissions nine year history and in recent weeks has contributed to a burgeoning debate about economic growth and its consequences for people and planet.

As world leaders prepare to meet in Copenhagen to forge a new climate deal, Jacksons analysis provides a salutary warning against complacency. Global carbon emissions have risen 40% since 1990 and will continue to rise inexorably unless action is taken urgently. By the year 2050, the carbon content of each dollar of economic activity will need to be a staggering 130 times lower than it is today, if we are to make room for much-needed development in the poorer nations and remain within a 2oC warming.

By the end of this century, well need an economy in which each and every dollar of economic activity is taking carbon out of the atmosphere, says Jackson. What does such an economy run on? What does it look like? What kind of economic activities take place in such a world? Nobody knows the answer to these questions. But its fanciful to suppose we can achieve such a transformation without seriously examining the dynamics of the growth-based model.

Jackson admits the task is not a trivial one. We are caught in a profound dilemma, he suggests. Economic growth is the default mechanism for achieving social stability. And at the same time it drives the scale of ecological damage. Whats needed now is an urgent commitment to building a different kind of economic system, one which puts people and planet at its heart, Jackson claims. For the advanced economies of the western world, prosperity without growth is no longer a utopian dream. It is a financial and ecological necessity.

Prosperity Without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet (Earthscan, £12.99) is available from all good bookshops and www.earthscan.co.uk "

Video - Ted - Rachel Pike: The science behind a climate headline

....36% (of Americans) say warming is occurring “mostly because of natural changes in the atmosphere.” ...(11%) say “there is no solid evidence that the earth is getting warmer.”

...84% of scientists say the earth is warming because of human activity. Scientists .... regard(ing) global warming as a very serious problem: 70% ... compared with 47% of the public. ."- Pew Research center for the people and the press

Why is that?

"In 4 minutes, atmospheric chemist Rachel Pike provides a glimpse of the massive scientific effort behind the bold headlines on climate change, with her team -- one of thousands who contributed -- taking a risky flight over the rainforest in pursuit of data on a key molecule."

Video - FAIR FOOD: FIELD TO TABLE

"FARMWORKERS TODAY: Approximately 2-3 million farmworkers feed our nation every day, working under some of the harshest and most dangerous conditions found in any industry. This is a glimpse into the hard realities that a vast majority of these workers face on a day-to-day basis. For more information on the fair food movement in the US and to see other chapters of this project please visit: fairfoodproject.org. "



Who puts the food on your table? Take action on this issue over at Organic Consumers Association.